AFTERNOON POSTINGS,  APRIL 5,  2008

Posted at 4:56 p.m.

TRACKERS

Gallup has no new results, but Rasmussen reports McCain still leading Obama by three in the general.  He has McCain leading Clinton by five. 

For the Dem nomination, Rasmussen has Obama leading Clinton by ten.  Obama has apparently recovered from the Rev. Wright flap, at least for now, to the extent that it was ever a flap within the Democratic Party.  I'm sure the GOP has that matter in its sights.

One point about the Democratic numbers:  We don't know the degree to which they are distorted by race.  African-Americans, who make up an estimated 20 percent of the Democratic base, are, intensely for Obama.  On the other hand, we cannot deny that some white Democrats may have negative racial feelings.  We only know the truth when the real ballots are counted.

April 5, 2008.     Permalink          

WELL, HE LEARNED

Many of us were saddened two years ago when Dave Marash, the respected ABC correspondent, and a staple of "Nightline," decided to go over to Al Jazeera English, the English-language section of the Arab broadcaster.  A sellout for money, many thought.

A funny thing happened to Dave on the way to a successful career among the brothers:  He decided his new employer wasn't entirely on the level.  We are shocked, shocked.  So Dave is leaving, and explains why:

Brent Cunningham: Would you elaborate on your decision to quit?

David Marash: It’s been a gradual process, and defining it all, is that with corporate encouragement, over the first two years of the channel’s existence, I have made myself effectively the American face of the channel and vouched for its credibility and value. And over the last seventeen months there have been several changes at the channel which put things on the air that, frankly, I could not vouch for. If I had just been another employee I might have just dropped my head and let it all wash over, because it is the nature of our business that every place you work occasionally does things that embarrass you. But I felt an extra measure of responsibility.

The man has integrity. 

BC: What are some examples of the kinds of stories that made you uncomfortable?

DM: There was a series entitled “Poverty in America” which, in the first place, was done in a way that illustrates some of the infrastructural problems that disturbed me greatly. The idea of a series about poverty in America was broached by the planning desk in Doha. The specifics of the plan were so stereotypical and shallow that the planning desk in Washington said that we think this is a very bad idea and recommend against it and won’t do it. And so the planning desk in Doha literally sneaked a production team into the United States without letting anyone in the American news desk know, and they went off and shot a four-part series that was execrable. That was essentially, if I may say so, here a poor, there a poor, everywhere a poor poor.

Read the whole thing.  It's worth it.  It pretty much confirms what many of us think of Al Jazeera.  Now I'd like to see some resignations from American news outlets that have become, if not as bad, then almost as bad.  I'm not holding my breath.

Be back tomorrow, or later tonight if events warrant.

April 5, 2008.     Permalink          

SATURDAY,  APRIL 5,  2008

Posted at 7:40 a.m. ET

I'M THE ONE

Richard Nixon's slogan in the 1968 campaign was, "Nixon's the One."  According to Andrew Kohut of the Pew Research Center, Obama's might as well be, "You're the One."  Obama, a survey by the center found, triggers feelings in voters about themselves:

While Mr. Obama’s positive personal image plays an important role in his high favorable ratings, the polling found that his ratings are more influenced by how he makes voters feel than by specific characteristics they attributed to him. In particular, views that Mr. Obama inspires hope and pride are the strongest determinants of a person’s opinion of him. In other words, he is a charismatic candidate who has made large numbers of Democratic voters feel good, and this is even more important to them than specific perceptions of him.

From what I've seen, that sounds about right.  Obama makes many people feel that they're doing the "right thing" by voting for him, even going to his rallies.  We can cleanse ourselves of our history by supporting him, some seem to feel.  For the affluent, he becomes the equivalent of having that Bangladeshi student live in the attic for a year.  Aren't we wonderful for doing it?  Aren't we the good people?

I've seen feel-good politics, but this is the ultimate. 

I fear it will work.

And the centrifuges in Iran will keep spinning, as we compliment ourselves on our decency.

April 5, 2008.      Permalink          

MICHIGAN DEFAULTS

The Democrats still seem to be on a suicide mission that ends at their national convention.  There are still no provisions to include Michigan and Florida, which held early primaries in violation of party rules.  The idea of going to the American people with a candidate nominated by a convention that excludes two large states seems ludicrous, but it may happen.  The story:

AP) Michigan Democrats officially have declared they won't hold a do-over presidential primary.

Members of the state party's executive committee issued a statement Friday saying "we have concluded that it is not practical" to conduct a party-run primary or caucus as a way to get the state's Democratic National Convention delegates seated.

Michigan and Florida were stripped of their convention delegates for moving up their primaries in defiance of party rules. Florida Democrats already had decided against holding a second primary election.

Presidential hopeful Hillary Rodham Clinton won the Jan. 15 Michigan primary. Rival Barack Obama had pulled his name from the ballot.

State Democrats now hope the two campaigns can agree on a way to split Michigan's pledged delegates so they can be seated at the Aug. 25-28 convention.

A working group of four top Democrats - U.S. Sen. Carl Levin, U.S. Rep. Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick, United Auto Workers President Ron Gettelfinger and Democratic National Committee member Debbie Dingell - has been working with the candidates' campaigns and the state and national parties to find a compromise.

"We will continue to work with the working group, the DNC and the candidates to resolve this matter in a manner which is respectful of the views of Democrats in Michigan, and which is fair to those who voted in the January 15th Democratic primary," the executive committee said in its statement.

The primary was in January.  This is April.  They haven't figured it out yet.  These people want to run the country and the War on Terror.

Oh, by the way, Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick is the mother of Detroit's mayor, Kwame Kilpatrick, who currently faces charges of perjury, obstruction of justice, conspiracy and misconduct in office.  These kids today, you just can't control them.  And she's concentrating on the primary?

Why doesn't this crowd make me feel good about myself?

April 5, 2008.     Permalink          

IRAN:  THE BRITS WORRY

No, silly, the Brits aren't worried about Iranian subversion in Iraq, or the Iranian nuclear program.  They're worried that those American hotheads may actually do something about that stuff.  We must not have effective action.  We must not:

British officials gave warning yesterday that America's commander in Iraq will declare that Iran is waging war against the US-backed Baghdad government.

A strong statement from General David Petraeus about Iran's intervention in Iraq could set the stage for a US attack on Iranian military facilities, according to a Whitehall assessment. In closely watched testimony in Washington next week, Gen Petraeus will state that the Iranian threat has risen as Tehran has supplied and directed attacks by militia fighters against the Iraqi state and its US allies.

The outbreak of Iraq's worst violence in 18 months last week with fighting in Basra and the daily bombardment of the Green Zone diplomatic enclave, demonstrated that although the Sunni Muslim insurgency is dramatically diminished, Shia forces remain in a strong position to destabilise the country.

"Petraeus is going to go very hard on Iran as the source of attacks on the American effort in Iraq," a British official said. "Iran is waging a war in Iraq. The idea that America can't fight a war on two fronts is wrong, there can be airstrikes and other moves," he said.

And...

The Wall Street Journal said last week that the US war effort in Iraq must have a double goal.

"The US must recognise that Iran is engaged in a full-up proxy war against it in Iraq," wrote the military analyst Kimberly Kagan.

Further...

There are signs that targeting Iran would unite American politicians across the bitter divide on Iraq. "Iran is the bull in the china shop," said Ike Skelton, the Democrat chairman of the Armed Services Committee. "In all of this, they seem to have links to all of the Shi'ite groups, whether they be political or military."

Sorry, that last point is wrong.  Targeting Iran would not unite Americans.  It is inconceivable that Barack Obama and the MoveOn crowd would support strong action against Iran, which is one reason why the Iranians think they can get away with their behavior.  Appeasement has its effects.

I agree with Michael Ledeen that we should be very careful about military action against Iran.  Many Iranian dissidents oppose it.  But the option must always be on the table to give our diplomacy the power it needs.

April 5, 2008.     Permalink          

STRANDED HEROINE

Whether you agree with everything Ayaan Hirsi Ali does or says, or not, she's come to symbolize Muslim dissidents who are under threat.  Ron Rosenbaum writes about her at Pajamas Media, and notes that she's now set up a foundation to aid those Muslim dissidents in their struggle. 

We don't do nearly enough to help those Muslims who are willing to take on the Jihadists.  In particular, we don't do nearly enough to help dissidents in Iran in their fight against the mullahs.  You'll be reading more about that at Urgent Agenda in coming months.  In 1956 we did nothing to help the Hungarians who revolted against Soviet rule.  In 1968 we did nothing to help the Czechs, who also revolted against Soviet oppression.  We paid for our indifference with a much longer Cold War.  We are making the same mistake again.

Back later today.

April 5, 2008.     Permalink